Prediction performance 72 games played
No cherry-picking — every match was predicted before kickoff, results audited after. We track two independent quality metrics: outcome (did we pick the right side of 1/X/2?) and exact score (did our predicted scoreline match exactly?). Exact-score accuracy is much harder — even a top-class Poisson model lands the exact score 8–12% of the time, so each hit is real signal. Skill score below is the standard "how much better than random?" measure: 0% = no better than coin-flipping, 100% = perfect prediction. It's derived from the Brier score against the random-guess baseline of 0.667.
| Date | Match | Prediction 1/X/2 | Predicted score | Actual | Outcome | Exact |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-11 |  Mexico vs  South Africa |
88% / 9% / 2% | 2–0 | 2-0 | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2026-06-11 |  South Korea vs  Czechia |
48% / 30% / 22% | 1–0 | 2-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-12 |  Canada vs  Bosnia |
63% / 25% / 12% | 1–0 | 1-1 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-12 |  United States vs  Paraguay |
34% / 27% / 39% | 1–1 | 4-1 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 |  Qatar vs  Switzerland |
3% / 11% / 86% | 0–2 | 1-1 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-13 |  Brazil vs  Morocco |
53% / 26% / 21% | 1–1 | 1-1 | ✗ | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 |  Haiti vs  Scotland |
7% / 20% / 73% | 0–1 | 0-1 | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2026-06-13 |  Australia vs  Türkiye |
34% / 30% / 36% | 1–1 | 2-0 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-14 |  Germany vs  Curaçao |
87% / 10% / 3% | 2–0 | 7-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-14 |  Netherlands vs  Japan |
44% / 29% / 26% | 1–1 | 2-2 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-14 |  Ivory Coast vs  Ecuador |
16% / 24% / 60% | 0–1 | 1-0 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-14 |  Sweden vs  Tunisia |
56% / 26% / 17% | 1–0 | 5-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-15 |  Spain vs  Cape Verde |
87% / 10% / 3% | 2–0 | 0-0 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-15 |  Belgium vs  Egypt |
65% / 23% / 12% | 1–0 | 1-1 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-15 |  Saudi Arabia vs  Uruguay |
8% / 18% / 74% | 0–2 | 1-1 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-15 |  Iran vs  New Zealand |
73% / 20% / 7% | 2–0 | 2-2 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-16 |  France vs  Senegal |
82% / 14% / 4% | 2–0 | 3-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-16 |  Iraq vs  Norway |
3% / 10% / 87% | 0–2 | 1-4 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-16 |  Argentina vs  Algeria |
87% / 10% / 3% | 2–0 | 3-0 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-16 |  Austria vs  Jordan |
66% / 24% / 10% | 1–0 | 3-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-17 |  Portugal vs  DR Congo |
83% / 14% / 3% | 2–0 | 1-1 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-17 |  England vs  Croatia |
67% / 23% / 10% | 1–0 | 4-2 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-17 |  Ghana vs  Panama |
27% / 30% / 43% | 1–1 | 1-0 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-17 |  Uzbekistan vs  Colombia |
3% / 11% / 87% | 0–2 | 1-3 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-18 | Czechia vs South Africa |
53% / 27% / 20% | 1–0 | 1-1 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-18 | Switzerland vs Bosnia |
70% / 24% / 6% | 1–0 | 4-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-18 | Canada vs Qatar |
73% / 19% / 8% | 2–0 | 6-0 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-18 | Mexico vs South Korea |
54% / 26% / 20% | 1–0 | 1-0 | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | United States vs Australia |
55% / 19% / 26% | 2–1 | 2-0 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-19 | Scotland vs Morocco |
6% / 21% / 72% | 0–1 | 0-1 | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2026-06-19 | Brazil vs Haiti |
85% / 12% / 3% | 2–0 | 3-0 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-19 | Türkiye vs Paraguay |
25% / 36% / 38% | 0–0 | 0-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-20 | Netherlands vs Sweden |
44% / 21% / 35% | 2–2 | 5-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-20 | Germany vs Ivory Coast |
87% / 8% / 5% | 4–0 | 2-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-20 | Ecuador vs Curaçao |
68% / 23% / 9% | 1–0 | 0-0 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-20 | Tunisia vs Japan |
3% / 10% / 86% | 0–2 | 0-4 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-21 | Spain vs Saudi Arabia |
60% / 29% / 11% | 1–0 | 4-0 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-21 | Belgium vs Iran |
53% / 29% / 18% | 1–0 | 0-0 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-21 | Uruguay vs Cape Verde |
64% / 27% / 9% | 1–0 | 2-2 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-21 | New Zealand vs Egypt |
24% / 23% / 54% | 1–2 | 1-3 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-22 | Argentina vs Austria |
78% / 15% / 7% | 2–0 | 2-0 | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | France vs Iraq |
84% / 11% / 5% | 3–0 | 3-0 | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2026-06-22 | Norway vs Senegal |
60% / 21% / 19% | 2–1 | 3-2 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-22 | Jordan vs Algeria |
25% / 27% / 48% | 1–1 | 1-2 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-23 | Portugal vs Uzbekistan |
70% / 21% / 9% | 2–0 | 5-0 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-23 | England vs Ghana |
93% / 5% / 2% | 3–0 | 0-0 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-23 | Panama vs Croatia |
2% / 10% / 88% | 0–2 | 0-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-23 | Colombia vs DR Congo |
78% / 16% / 6% | 2–0 | 1-0 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-24 | Switzerland vs Canada |
47% / 20% / 33% | 2–2 | 2-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-24 | Bosnia vs Qatar |
72% / 18% / 9% | 2–0 | 3-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-24 | Scotland vs Brazil |
4% / 15% / 81% | 0–2 | 0-3 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-24 | Morocco vs Haiti |
86% / 12% / 3% | 2–0 | 4-2 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-24 | Czechia vs Mexico |
6% / 20% / 75% | 0–1 | 0-3 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-24 | South Africa vs South Korea |
20% / 27% / 53% | 0–1 | 1-0 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | Ecuador vs Germany |
10% / 29% / 62% | 0–1 | 2-1 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | Curaçao vs Ivory Coast |
5% / 14% / 81% | 0–2 | 0-2 | ✓ | ✓ |
| 2026-06-25 | Japan vs Sweden |
66% / 20% / 14% | 2–0 | 1-1 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | Tunisia vs Netherlands |
2% / 5% / 93% | 0–3 | 1-3 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | Türkiye vs United States |
33% / 28% / 39% | 1–1 | 3-2 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-25 | Paraguay vs Australia |
48% / 31% / 21% | 1–0 | 0-0 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-26 | Norway vs France |
23% / 24% / 53% | 1–2 | 1-4 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-26 | Senegal vs Iraq |
80% / 14% / 6% | 2–0 | 5-0 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-26 | Cape Verde vs Saudi Arabia |
52% / 24% / 24% | 1–1 | 0-0 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-26 | Uruguay vs Spain |
2% / 7% / 91% | 0–3 | 0-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-26 | Egypt vs Iran |
47% / 27% / 26% | 1–1 | 1-1 | ✗ | ✓ |
| 2026-06-26 | New Zealand vs Belgium |
5% / 17% / 79% | 0–2 | 1-5 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-27 | Panama vs England |
4% / 20% / 76% | 0–1 | 0-2 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-27 | Croatia vs Ghana |
78% / 18% / 5% | 2–0 | 2-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-27 | Colombia vs Portugal |
14% / 21% / 66% | 0–2 | 0-0 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-27 | DR Congo vs Uzbekistan |
44% / 28% / 27% | 1–1 | 3-1 | ✓ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-27 | Algeria vs Austria |
32% / 28% / 41% | 1–1 | 3-3 | ✗ | ✗ |
| 2026-06-27 | Jordan vs Argentina |
3% / 13% / 83% | 0–2 | 1-3 | ✓ | ✗ |
Next 3 days, called. Jul 16 – Jul 18
Detailed predictions for matches in the next 3 days. Probabilities are a Bayesian-weighted blend of our model (ELO baseline + team-archetype energy corrections) and the sharpest pre-match market line (Pinnacle), with the blend weight itself learned hourly from how each side has scored against settled matches. The "If at penalties" pick names one winner even when the most likely result is a draw, using an ELO-tilted shootout for ties.
Round of 16 8 fixtures · Jul 4 → Jul 7
Winners of the 16 R32 ties meet across four days. Every pairing shown here has both sides confirmed — including Morocco (past Netherlands on pens) and France (3–0 over Sweden). Probabilities come from the same ELO + team-archetype model that called the group stage.
Saturday, July 4
Canada13% · 20% · 67%MoroccoParaguay2% · 7% · 90%FranceSunday, July 5
Brazil46% · 26% · 28%NorwayMexico30% · 28% · 42%EnglandMonday, July 6
United States15% · 18% · 67%BelgiumPortugal5% · 22% · 73%SpainTuesday, July 7
Argentina88% · 10% · 2%EgyptSwitzerland36% · 31% · 33%ColombiaRound of 32 16 fixtures · Jun 28 → Jul 3
Bracket assembled from the official FIFA slot map. Slots like "Runner-up Group K" or "3rd Group I/J/K" finalise to a team once Group Stage closes — predictions activate the moment both sides are confirmed.
Sunday, June 28
South Africa16% · 24% · 60%CanadaMonday, June 29
Germany57% · 28% · 15%ParaguayBrazil62% · 23% · 15%JapanNetherlands40% · 26% · 34%MoroccoTuesday, June 30
Ivory Coast8% · 19% · 73%NorwayFrance91% · 7% · 2%SwedenMexico48% · 25% · 27%EcuadorWednesday, July 1
England75% · 17% · 8%DR CongoBelgium50% · 21% · 29%SenegalUnited States58% · 22% · 20%BosniaThursday, July 2
Spain72% · 19% · 9%AustriaPortugal45% · 31% · 24%CroatiaSwitzerland48% · 24% · 28%AlgeriaFriday, July 3
Australia34% · 32% · 35%EgyptArgentina88% · 10% · 2%Cape VerdeColombia77% · 17% · 6%GhanaFull group schedule 72 matches · 12 groups
All 72 group-stage fixtures, with live standings as matches settle. Probabilities are intentionally hidden here — see the next-3-days window above for active predictions.
Group A
Mexico3300+69South Africa3111-14South Korea3102-13Czechia3012-41Mexico2–0South AfricaSouth Korea2–1CzechiaCzechia1–1South AfricaMexico1–0South KoreaCzechia0–3MexicoSouth Africa1–0South KoreaGroup B
Switzerland3210+47Canada3111+54Bosnia3111-14Qatar3012-81Canada1–1BosniaQatar1–1SwitzerlandSwitzerland4–1BosniaCanada6–0QatarSwitzerland2–1CanadaBosnia3–1QatarGroup C
Brazil3210+67Morocco3210+37Scotland3102-33Haiti3003-60Brazil1–1MoroccoHaiti0–1ScotlandScotland0–1MoroccoBrazil3–0HaitiScotland0–3BrazilMorocco4–2HaitiGroup D
United States3201+46Australia3111+04Paraguay3111-24Türkiye3102-23United States4–1ParaguayAustralia2–0TürkiyeUnited States2–0AustraliaTürkiye0–1ParaguayTürkiye3–2United StatesParaguay0–0AustraliaGroup E
Germany3201+66Ivory Coast3201+26Ecuador3111+04Curaçao3012-81Germany7–1CuraçaoIvory Coast1–0EcuadorGermany2–1Ivory CoastEcuador0–0CuraçaoEcuador2–1GermanyCuraçao0–2Ivory CoastGroup F
Netherlands3210+67Japan3120+45Sweden3111+04Tunisia3003-100Netherlands2–2JapanSweden5–1TunisiaNetherlands5–1SwedenTunisia0–4JapanJapan1–1SwedenTunisia1–3NetherlandsGroup G
Belgium3120+45Egypt3120+25Iran3030+03New Zealand3012-61Belgium1–1EgyptIran2–2New ZealandBelgium0–0IranNew Zealand1–3EgyptEgypt1–1IranNew Zealand1–5BelgiumGroup H
Spain3210+57Cape Verde3030+03Uruguay3021-12Saudi Arabia3021-42Spain0–0Cape VerdeSaudi Arabia1–1UruguaySpain4–0Saudi ArabiaUruguay2–2Cape VerdeCape Verde0–0Saudi ArabiaUruguay0–1SpainGroup I
France3300+89Norway3201+16Senegal3102+23Iraq3003-110France3–1SenegalIraq1–4NorwayFrance3–0IraqNorway3–2SenegalNorway1–4FranceSenegal5–0IraqGroup J
Argentina3300+79Austria3111+04Algeria3111-24Jordan3003-50Argentina3–0AlgeriaAustria3–1JordanArgentina2–0AustriaJordan1–2AlgeriaAlgeria3–3AustriaJordan1–3ArgentinaGroup K
Colombia3210+37Portugal3120+55DR Congo3111+14Uzbekistan3003-90Portugal1–1DR CongoUzbekistan1–3ColombiaPortugal5–0UzbekistanColombia1–0DR CongoColombia0–0PortugalDR Congo3–1UzbekistanGroup L
England3210+47Croatia3201+06Ghana3111+04Panama3003-40England4–2CroatiaGhana1–0PanamaEngland0–0GhanaPanama0–1CroatiaPanama0–2EnglandCroatia2–1GhanaWho lifts the trophy? Snapshot · Jul 16
Daily canonical snapshot — taken once per tournament day after the last match settles, with a date-seeded 20,000-run Monte Carlo for reproducibility. Arrows show movement since Jul 15. "Ours" is what the blend (model + Pinnacle, weighted by learned W_MARKET) implies after simulating every remaining match. "Market" is Pinnacle's de-vigged outright winner price.
Predictions, method, and questions
Soccer Guru publishes free, transparent World Cup 2026 predictions for all 72 group-stage matches and the full 32-team knockout bracket. Each match prediction includes the 1X2 probability, the most likely exact score, the predicted winner if it goes to penalties, and a tournament-winner probability updated every 60 minutes. Every published number is frozen 5 minutes before kickoff so our backtest is honest — what you see is what we committed to.
Today's top World Cup 2026 picks
Browse the next 3 days for detailed predictions, the full group-by-group schedule for standings and upcoming fixtures, or the tournament-winner board for outright odds. Predictions are recomputed every hour as ELO ratings, team news and pre-match market lines change — and frozen 5 minutes before kickoff so the published number is the one we are accountable for.
Frequently asked questions
Who will win the FIFA World Cup 2026?
Soccer Guru's model currently rates Spain, Argentina, France, England and Portugal as the top five contenders. The tournament-winner board is regenerated by a 5,000-run Monte Carlo simulation every 60 minutes and reflects the latest group-stage results, ELO ratings and pre-match market lines.
How accurate are these World Cup 2026 predictions?
Honest accuracy is published live in the Prediction Performance section: outcome picks (1/X/2), exact-score hits, Brier skill score against a random baseline. Every prediction is frozen at T−5 minutes before kickoff so it cannot be rewritten after the fact.
Where is the 2026 World Cup played?
The 2026 FIFA World Cup is co-hosted by the United States, Mexico and Canada. Matches run across 16 venues including MetLife Stadium (NY/NJ), SoFi Stadium (Los Angeles), AT&T Stadium (Dallas), Estadio Azteca (Mexico City), BMO Field (Toronto) and BC Place (Vancouver).
What is the 2026 World Cup format?
48 teams in 12 groups of 4. The top 2 from each group plus the 8 best third-placed teams advance to a 32-team knockout bracket — Round of 32, Round of 16, Quarter-finals, Semi-finals, Final. Tournament dates: 11 June 2026 through 19 July 2026.
Are these picks free?
Yes. Every World Cup 2026 prediction, including 1X2 probability, exact-score pick and outright tournament-winner odds, is published free of charge on soccerguru.vip. No login required to view.
Browse predictions by group
Open the full group-by-group schedule for live standings and every fixture from Group A (Mexico, South Africa, South Korea, Czechia) to Group L. Upcoming matches inside the 3-day prediction window show 1/X/2 probabilities and a predicted score inline.